It was very possibly a bright sunny day in 2007, when then president Mbeki was told by the Eskom executive that if they did not start building more capacity, the country would suffer power shortages. Many failed tenders, failed power stations later, we are back to enforced romantic candlelit dinners.
Eskom has released some projections based on the worst and best case scenarios going forward. For the near term of around 5 years, things are going to get worse, but hopefully, as more IPP’s come on line and are fast tracked through the NERSA approval process….. this scenario may well change.
Let us work on the assumption that the bureaucratic pitfalls and back-handed red tape have mysteriously fallen away and that the process of approval is run by an army of German technocrats. The best case scenario is still highly unlikely given history and the law of unintended consequences. You MAY see some relief in 3 years, but don’t hold your breathe.
Eskom’s latest proposal is to charge connected customers a monthly fee of around R950 to not use power. Those consumers who have already made the initial investment into a solar system will simply add a few more batteries or add a generator into the mix for the odd occasions when there is 3 days of heavy cloud and rain that at a capital cost of around R10 000. there are of course running and servicing costs associated with a generator or add another 5kW lithium battery to the current bank and recover that back over 3 years.
Eskom’s plan may very well backfire, as an unintended consequence. Adding a bit more capacity to get my home and business completely off-grid is a matter of time and the Eskom connection, more a convenience.
They don’t call it the dark ages for nothing!
Dark days ahead as Eskom paints best/worst case loadshedding scenarios